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philmophlegm October 29 2013, 11:24:18 UTC
"Many now think inflation helps." Conversely, many think it doesn't. However, there probably is something of a consensus that Japanese-style deflation is certainly something to be avoided ( ... )

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andrewducker October 29 2013, 11:25:31 UTC
Oh yes. 3% fine, 25% bad. I suspect there are arguments for 5%, I doubt there are good ones for anything higher than that!

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philmophlegm October 29 2013, 12:49:37 UTC
There will definitely be people who would be happy not worrying about higher inflation than 5% because they are focused on other targets - lower unemployment, higher growth for example - and they would see higher inflation as an acceptable trade-off.

It's essentially a moral trade-off because different segments of the population are affected by unemployment, low growth and inflation.

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andrewducker October 29 2013, 12:53:40 UTC
True, yes.

I'm thinking of the long-term here, largely. And that the long-term effects of high inflation would be bad for people at all levels. A few months of 25% inflation would be annoying, but shouldn't throw the country into disarray. If it stayed that way for long periods then investment would, I'd have thought, start to have problems.

I don't actually know enough about when it starts to go wrong though!

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chess October 29 2013, 12:51:42 UTC
We've known that (single-digit) inflation is good for a long time now - ever since various places used stamp scrip to pull themselves out of the 1930s depression. Inflation means that money has to move - which is what drives the economy.

If you have no inflation, you massively reduce the incentive to invest - because you can just bury your wealth in a hole in the ground and you aren't going to lose any of it (even if you might gain more if you invested correctly, just storing it has practically zero risk in the absence of inflation, which is very attractive to humans).

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del_c October 29 2013, 13:41:58 UTC
The constituency that wants inflation to be ultra-low is the same constituency that wanted monetarism, the gold standard, and austerity: people who own tons of stuff. They're a very small number of people, and often things that are bad for almost everybody are good for them.

When I hear phrase "the economy" in a sentence, I usually substitute "people who own tons of stuff", and it's amazing how often the sentence makes sense when it didn't before. Inflation is bad for the economy!

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