A bet with steer
Steer just published this on his journal:
"I bet Andrew Ducker that before May 4th 2033 the UK (or that part of the UK which stays with London after any devolution) will retain First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) for general elections. Further, no English county council/unitrary authority elections (of the type described in [1]) will switch system away from FPTP.
The person who loses will buy the winner a drink of their choice (within reason -- pints of champagne or bottles of aged whiskey are out) in a bar in the winner's home city... presence over video accepted if distance precludes attendance in person.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013"
I agree with some of his reasoning, but believe that self-interest in supporting the good of individual parties will overcome worries about hypocrisy, and that having a fourth* party with a large chunk of popular support will make it even more obvious to people how broken the system is - and that having 40-odd percent of people voting for parties that are disadvantaged by the voting system is not sustainable over the long-term (i.e. 20 years).
Of course, if UKIP support crumbles by the time of the next election then this becomes much less likely. We shall see - and I shall try to remain optimistic.
*As I've discussed elsewhere, I'd love the Greens to get enough mainstream support to make this five. I don't see it any time soon though.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are
comments there.
"I bet Andrew Ducker that before May 4th 2033 the UK (or that part of the UK which stays with London after any devolution) will retain First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) for general elections. Further, no English county council/unitrary authority elections (of the type described in [1]) will switch system away from FPTP.
The person who loses will buy the winner a drink of their choice (within reason -- pints of champagne or bottles of aged whiskey are out) in a bar in the winner's home city... presence over video accepted if distance precludes attendance in person.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013"
I agree with some of his reasoning, but believe that self-interest in supporting the good of individual parties will overcome worries about hypocrisy, and that having a fourth* party with a large chunk of popular support will make it even more obvious to people how broken the system is - and that having 40-odd percent of people voting for parties that are disadvantaged by the voting system is not sustainable over the long-term (i.e. 20 years).
Of course, if UKIP support crumbles by the time of the next election then this becomes much less likely. We shall see - and I shall try to remain optimistic.
*As I've discussed elsewhere, I'd love the Greens to get enough mainstream support to make this five. I don't see it any time soon though.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are
comments there.