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danieldwilliam February 14 2012, 11:38:08 UTC
I would love to spend a few days with the MOD’s forecasting team. If they have one.

The first paragraph of the report on the MOD has some of the most pointless adding up I’ve ever seen. 26 years of combined delay.

A combined overrun of £6bn, that means something. That means that there is £6bn less cash available to someone somewhere. From the point of view of a tax payer it’s not first order important if £5.5bn of that £6bn came from one project or was equally spread. The Big Take Away is that we’re £6bn down.

A total of 26 years delay doesn’t mean anything. If spread across all 15 projects it averages out at 1 ¾ years. Which might be a lot on a three year project to build a new jeep but not so long on a twenty year project to re-design a nuclear submarine. If the time splipage were concentrated on one project that might mean a very different situation. A 20 year delay on replacing our nuclear submarines might mean that we don’t have a nuclear deterent for a decade.* Or you end up with a Nimrod project which is so delayed that it is obsolete. Which would be a bit more of a worry than having to wait a couple of years extra for a new jeep.

*Obvously YMMV on whether you think this is a problem but I suggest that if you don’t want a nuclear deterent so very much better not to have paid one.

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