Labour do not tend to win elections because of Scotland

[andrewducker]

Over the last few days I've repeatedly bumped into the idea that if Scotland leaves the UK then the remaining parts are destined to be ruled by a permanent Conservative government, because only the Scottish Labour MPs tip the balance

Comments

[gonzo21]

It would however be 58 fewer seats the Tories would require for a working majority though?

[andrewducker]

But as they only seem to need them that badly once every 34 years, I'm not that worried about it.

[gonzo21]

That's interesting, so general elections tend to be big wins one way or the other.

[andrewducker]

Consequence of FPTP - you only need a few people in marginal constituencies to swing them, so a 3% swing in the general population moves a big wodge of close places from one side to the other.

[steer]

Thanks for that! Really interesting.

[ice_hesitant]

Also, parties are not immutable. Both policies and the electorate change over time, and FPTP will tend towards a certain equilibrium regardless of a country's composition.

[la_marquise_de_]

Absolutely. Neither Scotland nor Wales has sufficient seats, in fact, to swing an election. (I sometimes wish they did, since they tend to vote for more socialist parties. Not that the English are necessarily more right wing, but there are more rural seats, and historically those tend to be conservative.)

[undeadbydawn]

as I mentioned yesterday, the problem would not have been a lack of Scottish votes, but that the last Labour Government would have been impossible to form.

Not to say that Labour couldn't have won otherwise, just that the team that beat Major was overwhelmingly Scots.