While the rest of the world is collectively freaking out and going through the same sort of stuff we did in January, here in China things are closer to getting back to normal
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Things will definitely run their course. Even if the worst case scenario happens, humanity as a whole will prevail. That's not much comfort if you are in a high risk group, or if the response causes you to lose your job or savings, though.
We have evidence from several countries now that the virus can be contained if the authorities take it seriously and quickly respond to all the cases (tracking contacts, testing etc). Unfortunately i am not sure America is going to be able to do that at this point, because it's already spread all over the place.
If the whole country self-isolates for a month, the virus should "die off" to the point it's containable again, but that's a big ask in a democratic country where people don't get sick leave and have to pay out-of-pocket for healthcare. (China also doesn't have very strong sick leave or universal healthcare policies, but they're more robust than America's, and because they're a single-party state, the government doesn't need to worry about getting voted out for making unpopular decisions like quarantining people against their will or fencing in neighborhoods.)
I am just guessing here, but i think what might happen is that in parts of the country where the lockdown is taken seriously and the government has more money, they'll get on top of things by summer. I suspect then the news cycle will move on, while less interesting parts of the country (and less interesting parts of the world) continue to suffer. I have no idea, though. I have to be honest - i am more up-to-date on the political side of this than the scientific side.
We have evidence from several countries now that the virus can be contained if the authorities take it seriously and quickly respond to all the cases (tracking contacts, testing etc). Unfortunately i am not sure America is going to be able to do that at this point, because it's already spread all over the place.
If the whole country self-isolates for a month, the virus should "die off" to the point it's containable again, but that's a big ask in a democratic country where people don't get sick leave and have to pay out-of-pocket for healthcare. (China also doesn't have very strong sick leave or universal healthcare policies, but they're more robust than America's, and because they're a single-party state, the government doesn't need to worry about getting voted out for making unpopular decisions like quarantining people against their will or fencing in neighborhoods.)
I am just guessing here, but i think what might happen is that in parts of the country where the lockdown is taken seriously and the government has more money, they'll get on top of things by summer. I suspect then the news cycle will move on, while less interesting parts of the country (and less interesting parts of the world) continue to suffer. I have no idea, though. I have to be honest - i am more up-to-date on the political side of this than the scientific side.
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