Speaking as someone with a degree in meteorology, let me say that it is extremely difficult to predict snowfall amounts. One inch of snow equals a tenth of an inch of rain, so not only do we need to say that water is going to fall from the sky, we need to say precisely how much of it is going to fall. A quarter-inch is the difference between 2-3 inches of snow. That's pretty tough to say, as it isn't being carried around by someone in a tank up there.
The public holds weather forecasting to a very high standard. They get just as many complaints if something is forecast that *doesn't* happen as they do if something occurs that was not forecast. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Another side product of public demand influencing product is the ten-day forecast -- they aren't at all reliable, but the public wants a ten-day forecast, so now they get one.
As for why no one seemed to grasp events while they were happening, I can't offer up an explanation. While forecasting may have already plateaued, up-to-the-minute information about what is going on right now is better than ever. There's no good excuse I can think of why the authorities were not aware of what was happening and made no immediate statements about it.
I do appreciate the vagaries of forecasting, and I don't mind being told "We're not certain which way it will go," or "One computer model says this, the other says that." But I object to being told that it is not going to snow when it's coming down in huge slushballs. Or that the total accumulation will not exceed 3 inches when there are already 5 new inches on the ground. That's just... inexcusable in my opinion.
The public holds weather forecasting to a very high standard. They get just as many complaints if something is forecast that *doesn't* happen as they do if something occurs that was not forecast. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Another side product of public demand influencing product is the ten-day forecast -- they aren't at all reliable, but the public wants a ten-day forecast, so now they get one.
As for why no one seemed to grasp events while they were happening, I can't offer up an explanation. While forecasting may have already plateaued, up-to-the-minute information about what is going on right now is better than ever. There's no good excuse I can think of why the authorities were not aware of what was happening and made no immediate statements about it.
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