2016 Formula 1 season, week 8
I kinda flaked on these for the last couple months. It just hasn't seemed important. I've been a little bummed out, and I got sucked back into Warcraft again, so I've had plenty of other things to eat my time. But these are important to me, because they give me a glimpse into my thinking at this particular point in the season. So, I'm going to pick this up again, and keep doing them.
For the last 2-1/2 years, Mercedes dominance has been singular. Prior to that, Sebastian Vettel's four consecutive championships for Red Bull were marked by competition that usually went pretty late into the season, but for the last two years, it's been Mercedes vs. the field, and you were a fool to take the field. It hasn't been close.
That's changing. Both Ferrari and Red Bull are starting to figure it out, and Mercedes dominance this year is due at least in part to unreliability and strategic miscues by the other two as much as it has been having a better car. The winds of change are coming.
But will they come fast enough for someone to alter the outcome of this season?
...yeah, I'm gonna go with 'no'.
Competing for the championship, barring some kind of epic shitfuck on their part or some great leap forward on someone else's:
Nico Rosberg (Mercedes): 141 (5 wins, 5 podiums)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes): 117 (2 wins, 5 podiums)
The field:
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari): 96 (5 podiums, in 7 starts)
Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari): 81 (3 podiums)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull): 78 (1 podium)
Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso/Red Bull): 54 (1 win, 1 podium)
Valtteri Bottas (Williams): 52 (1 podium)
Sergio Pérez (Force India): 39 (2 podiums)
Felipe Massa (Williams): 38
Daniil Kvyat (Red Bull/Toro Rosso): 22 (1 podium, in 7 starts)
Romain Grosjean (Haas): 22
Nico Hülkenberg (Force India): 20
Fernando Alonso (McLaren): 18 (in 7 starts)
Carlos Sainz, Jr. (Toro Rosso): 18
Kevin Magnussen (Renault): 6
Jenson Button (McLaren): 5
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren): 1 (in 1 start)
Esteban Gutiérrez (Haas): 0 (6 finish, best 11th)
Jolyon Palmer (Renault): 0 (5 finishes in 7 starts, best 11th, 1 DFL)
Marcus Ericsson (Sauber): 0 (5 finishes, best 12th)
Felipe Nasr (Sauber): 0 (7 finishes, best 12th)
Pascal Wehrlein (Manor): 0 (7 finishes, best 13th, 2 DFLs - both of the races Haryanto did not finish)
Rio Haryanto (Manor): 0 (6 finishes, best 15th, 5 DFLs)
The tightening of competition even extends to the backmarkers. Wehrlein's Manor has finished ahead of a Sauber (Nasr, 3 times), a Force India (Hulkenberg, in Bahrain), a Haas (Grosjean in China), and Renault (Palmer in China). And although the car has gained about four seconds over last year's pace, it's still the turd of the field, and his success is probably due more to him being a brilliant driver. Compare with Haryanto, who has only ever once beaten another car on the track, finishing just ahead of Jolyon Palmer in China.
For the last 2-1/2 years, Mercedes dominance has been singular. Prior to that, Sebastian Vettel's four consecutive championships for Red Bull were marked by competition that usually went pretty late into the season, but for the last two years, it's been Mercedes vs. the field, and you were a fool to take the field. It hasn't been close.
That's changing. Both Ferrari and Red Bull are starting to figure it out, and Mercedes dominance this year is due at least in part to unreliability and strategic miscues by the other two as much as it has been having a better car. The winds of change are coming.
But will they come fast enough for someone to alter the outcome of this season?
...yeah, I'm gonna go with 'no'.
Competing for the championship, barring some kind of epic shitfuck on their part or some great leap forward on someone else's:
Nico Rosberg (Mercedes): 141 (5 wins, 5 podiums)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes): 117 (2 wins, 5 podiums)
The field:
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari): 96 (5 podiums, in 7 starts)
Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari): 81 (3 podiums)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull): 78 (1 podium)
Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso/Red Bull): 54 (1 win, 1 podium)
Valtteri Bottas (Williams): 52 (1 podium)
Sergio Pérez (Force India): 39 (2 podiums)
Felipe Massa (Williams): 38
Daniil Kvyat (Red Bull/Toro Rosso): 22 (1 podium, in 7 starts)
Romain Grosjean (Haas): 22
Nico Hülkenberg (Force India): 20
Fernando Alonso (McLaren): 18 (in 7 starts)
Carlos Sainz, Jr. (Toro Rosso): 18
Kevin Magnussen (Renault): 6
Jenson Button (McLaren): 5
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren): 1 (in 1 start)
Esteban Gutiérrez (Haas): 0 (6 finish, best 11th)
Jolyon Palmer (Renault): 0 (5 finishes in 7 starts, best 11th, 1 DFL)
Marcus Ericsson (Sauber): 0 (5 finishes, best 12th)
Felipe Nasr (Sauber): 0 (7 finishes, best 12th)
Pascal Wehrlein (Manor): 0 (7 finishes, best 13th, 2 DFLs - both of the races Haryanto did not finish)
Rio Haryanto (Manor): 0 (6 finishes, best 15th, 5 DFLs)
The tightening of competition even extends to the backmarkers. Wehrlein's Manor has finished ahead of a Sauber (Nasr, 3 times), a Force India (Hulkenberg, in Bahrain), a Haas (Grosjean in China), and Renault (Palmer in China). And although the car has gained about four seconds over last year's pace, it's still the turd of the field, and his success is probably due more to him being a brilliant driver. Compare with Haryanto, who has only ever once beaten another car on the track, finishing just ahead of Jolyon Palmer in China.