The Real Next-Taoiseach-but-one?
OK so. Brian Cowen, wanting to cling on to office just that little bit longer, double-dared Michael Martin to challenge him, and made up a procedure for this, out of whole cloth as far as I can see, and (naturally!) that would best suit himself. Martin, obviously not wanting the job under the current trainwreck of political and economic circumstances, but wanting to be the person in position for some way down the line (rebuilding for the general election after this, say in 4 or 5 years time), can't be seen to be bottling it, and so has taken him up on the offer. So far as I can see, that gets each of them exactly the opposite of what they actually wanted. I guess Hanafin, Lenihan, and the opposition in general aren't complaining, though.
That's the "subtle" problem with playing a game of Prisoner's Dilemma in FF: everyone's Defecting, no-one's Co-operating.
Assuming Cowen wins the confidence motion, things will stagger on much as before for a little longer. Will be the "failed challenger" work in Martin's favour, or against him, when there's a leadership election for real after FF have lost the GE. If he loses it... what then? Are the Greens going to "facilitate" FF while they faff about playing musical leaders, possibly further delaying the general election they've been obviously unhappy about having "pushed back" already? Or would it bring about an immediate dissolution, and FF having to wing their lack of a leader during the election? The mind fairly boggles.
That's the "subtle" problem with playing a game of Prisoner's Dilemma in FF: everyone's Defecting, no-one's Co-operating.
Assuming Cowen wins the confidence motion, things will stagger on much as before for a little longer. Will be the "failed challenger" work in Martin's favour, or against him, when there's a leadership election for real after FF have lost the GE. If he loses it... what then? Are the Greens going to "facilitate" FF while they faff about playing musical leaders, possibly further delaying the general election they've been obviously unhappy about having "pushed back" already? Or would it bring about an immediate dissolution, and FF having to wing their lack of a leader during the election? The mind fairly boggles.