CSP: The West’ strategic defeat is reversible
Hamas’ October 7, 2023 Attack on Israel. The CSP Report
The following is the result of a discussion between Center for Security Policy experts
Dr. David Wurmser, Dr. J. Michael Waller, Dr. Andrei Illarionov, and Kyle Shideler.
Edited by Morgan Wirthlin
Main conclusion
For the last 30 years, the West generally has believed great power competition was over, and conflicts would be arbitrated by international institutions or waged in grand coalitions deploying vast sums of national wealth, prestige and manpower against weak states and non-state actors. There was a dominant belief that violent conflict could be resolved simply through surgical strikes against perceived “rogue states” who objected to the dominate international order. This attitude ignored geopolitical realities, history, culture, or any other factor for the sake of installing democratic political processes and institutions without regard to viability or outcome, which in turn undermined non-Western or “less-than-perfect” allies in favor of corrupt, unrepresentative, or overtly anti-Western nominal “democracies”.
The West, and above all the United States, continues to demonstrate that it has not learned from history and its own mistakes. It instead continues to rely upon a defense model based on producing unsustainably expensive weapons systems without any attention to a grand strategy to guide their development, deployment, or even use. It takes a condescending view toward more resourceful adversaries, dismissed as primitives, who outwit and outmaneuver with inexpensive strategies, tactics, and tools. These adversaries stymie or even defeat us time and time again through their asymmetric approach, with themselves successively playing the role of David to our Goliath, and winning. The Israel-Hamas conflict shows, as did Afghanistan before it, that our opponents realize they win merely by surviving, and allowing the West to drive itself into strategic retreat.
Enemies are empowered to act in this way because the West fails to be mindful and resourceful in its own
approach, utilizing a variety of non-tangible assets against foreign threats large and small.
An academic theory of International Relations, built on antiquated assumptions developed by a massive military and intelligence bureaucracy, has formed the basis of national security professionals’ understanding of the world while the fundamentals of statecraft - distinguishing friends from enemies, understanding adversaries’ goals and their abilities to achieve them - have been forgotten. The United States has forgotten them. Most NATO allies have forgotten. Israel forgot them until its brutal awakening on October 7. Even then, Israel squandered its once-formidable psychological advantage of perceived invincibility. It has failed to achieve or maintain a psychological advantage against its enemies. And it is rapidly losing influence among friends and allies.
Israel’s present situation is a warning. Those who helped facilitate Hamas’ attack have a shared goal - the destruction of the West - and they are actively mobilizing in service of that goal.
In both wars against Israel and Ukraine, conflict is driven not by grievance but because of fundamental contempt. Hamas’ contempt for the West and Israel is evident in its founding charter. Russia seeks total “de-Nazification” of Ukraine - which means the destruction of Ukraine as a country. Kremlin propaganda discusses this war in global terms - a cultural and civilizational battle between the West and the non-West.
But Western elites too have expressed contempt, both for the people they are supposed to serve, and for the principles foundational to Western civilization. Domestic political polarization and failed “forever wars” have made Americans wary of involvement in foreign conflicts, especially when led by leaders who appear more enamored of American adversaries than their own constituents. Enemies have effectively exploited existing divisions. The subversion of institutions and attacks on civilizational strength have allowed a small and relatively weak actor like Hamas to have catastrophic impact.
The credit built by U.S. power and prestige gained over 200 years of sacrifice has been cashed in by this generation of leaders at an unsustainable rate. Current U.S. leadership seems unaware that the power to which they were entrusted is eroding. The world is entering the acute phase of the next great power conflict, and like the last one, the West enters it complacent and asleep. Violent conflict is increasingly likely because the West is not mobilizing to meet the upcoming existential challenge intellectually, morally, politically, financially, militarily, and industrially.
Especially morally. The corrupting effect of the military-industrial complex about which President Eisenhower famously warned has produced the world’s best weapons and worst strategists and leaders.
Western leaders are so fearful of Iranian escalation they ignore even attacks on U.S. citizens and troops, while refusing to support young Iranians who are genuine opponents of the Ayatollah’s regime and whom these Islamists fear more than any weapon system.
The West, and especially the United States, continues to permit the double-dealing and ultimately terror-sponsoring regime of Qatar to serve as the linchpin to our entire Middle East presence, while it corrupts American institutions and leaders with an outsized influence campaign.
Western leaders can’t envision a Russia beyond Putin or a world without the Chinese Communist Party.
Being unable to envision its preferred end-state, it cannot conceive of a grand strategy to secure its own
interests.
The U.S. and most of its allies have chosen to fail to internalize the value of economical, less violent or even nonviolent asymmetric worldviews, mindsets, and strategies against rising threats. That failure will continue to cede incremental victories to America’s most ruthless enemies while we fall further into strategic retreat.
This strategic defeat, and the consequences of it, are reversible. However, this will require that U.S. and Western leaders first admit their failures and then dedicate themselves to investing the kind of innovative and disciplined thought and action exhibited by our forefathers during the revolutionary war.
America’s Founders fought, and won, an asymmetric war against a massive and determined enemy. Because they placed an immense focus on being intellectually, politically, financially, militarily, and - especially - morally fit and capable, they succeeded. The industrial might of our nation followed and it too can be regained, but that too will take a significant investment and time.
The CSP Report in full:
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/case-study-hamas-october-7-2023-attack-on-israel/
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Israel_Hamas_2024_CSP.pdf
The following is the result of a discussion between Center for Security Policy experts
Dr. David Wurmser, Dr. J. Michael Waller, Dr. Andrei Illarionov, and Kyle Shideler.
Edited by Morgan Wirthlin
Main conclusion
For the last 30 years, the West generally has believed great power competition was over, and conflicts would be arbitrated by international institutions or waged in grand coalitions deploying vast sums of national wealth, prestige and manpower against weak states and non-state actors. There was a dominant belief that violent conflict could be resolved simply through surgical strikes against perceived “rogue states” who objected to the dominate international order. This attitude ignored geopolitical realities, history, culture, or any other factor for the sake of installing democratic political processes and institutions without regard to viability or outcome, which in turn undermined non-Western or “less-than-perfect” allies in favor of corrupt, unrepresentative, or overtly anti-Western nominal “democracies”.
The West, and above all the United States, continues to demonstrate that it has not learned from history and its own mistakes. It instead continues to rely upon a defense model based on producing unsustainably expensive weapons systems without any attention to a grand strategy to guide their development, deployment, or even use. It takes a condescending view toward more resourceful adversaries, dismissed as primitives, who outwit and outmaneuver with inexpensive strategies, tactics, and tools. These adversaries stymie or even defeat us time and time again through their asymmetric approach, with themselves successively playing the role of David to our Goliath, and winning. The Israel-Hamas conflict shows, as did Afghanistan before it, that our opponents realize they win merely by surviving, and allowing the West to drive itself into strategic retreat.
Enemies are empowered to act in this way because the West fails to be mindful and resourceful in its own
approach, utilizing a variety of non-tangible assets against foreign threats large and small.
An academic theory of International Relations, built on antiquated assumptions developed by a massive military and intelligence bureaucracy, has formed the basis of national security professionals’ understanding of the world while the fundamentals of statecraft - distinguishing friends from enemies, understanding adversaries’ goals and their abilities to achieve them - have been forgotten. The United States has forgotten them. Most NATO allies have forgotten. Israel forgot them until its brutal awakening on October 7. Even then, Israel squandered its once-formidable psychological advantage of perceived invincibility. It has failed to achieve or maintain a psychological advantage against its enemies. And it is rapidly losing influence among friends and allies.
Israel’s present situation is a warning. Those who helped facilitate Hamas’ attack have a shared goal - the destruction of the West - and they are actively mobilizing in service of that goal.
In both wars against Israel and Ukraine, conflict is driven not by grievance but because of fundamental contempt. Hamas’ contempt for the West and Israel is evident in its founding charter. Russia seeks total “de-Nazification” of Ukraine - which means the destruction of Ukraine as a country. Kremlin propaganda discusses this war in global terms - a cultural and civilizational battle between the West and the non-West.
But Western elites too have expressed contempt, both for the people they are supposed to serve, and for the principles foundational to Western civilization. Domestic political polarization and failed “forever wars” have made Americans wary of involvement in foreign conflicts, especially when led by leaders who appear more enamored of American adversaries than their own constituents. Enemies have effectively exploited existing divisions. The subversion of institutions and attacks on civilizational strength have allowed a small and relatively weak actor like Hamas to have catastrophic impact.
The credit built by U.S. power and prestige gained over 200 years of sacrifice has been cashed in by this generation of leaders at an unsustainable rate. Current U.S. leadership seems unaware that the power to which they were entrusted is eroding. The world is entering the acute phase of the next great power conflict, and like the last one, the West enters it complacent and asleep. Violent conflict is increasingly likely because the West is not mobilizing to meet the upcoming existential challenge intellectually, morally, politically, financially, militarily, and industrially.
Especially morally. The corrupting effect of the military-industrial complex about which President Eisenhower famously warned has produced the world’s best weapons and worst strategists and leaders.
Western leaders are so fearful of Iranian escalation they ignore even attacks on U.S. citizens and troops, while refusing to support young Iranians who are genuine opponents of the Ayatollah’s regime and whom these Islamists fear more than any weapon system.
The West, and especially the United States, continues to permit the double-dealing and ultimately terror-sponsoring regime of Qatar to serve as the linchpin to our entire Middle East presence, while it corrupts American institutions and leaders with an outsized influence campaign.
Western leaders can’t envision a Russia beyond Putin or a world without the Chinese Communist Party.
Being unable to envision its preferred end-state, it cannot conceive of a grand strategy to secure its own
interests.
The U.S. and most of its allies have chosen to fail to internalize the value of economical, less violent or even nonviolent asymmetric worldviews, mindsets, and strategies against rising threats. That failure will continue to cede incremental victories to America’s most ruthless enemies while we fall further into strategic retreat.
This strategic defeat, and the consequences of it, are reversible. However, this will require that U.S. and Western leaders first admit their failures and then dedicate themselves to investing the kind of innovative and disciplined thought and action exhibited by our forefathers during the revolutionary war.
America’s Founders fought, and won, an asymmetric war against a massive and determined enemy. Because they placed an immense focus on being intellectually, politically, financially, militarily, and - especially - morally fit and capable, they succeeded. The industrial might of our nation followed and it too can be regained, but that too will take a significant investment and time.
The CSP Report in full:
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/case-study-hamas-october-7-2023-attack-on-israel/
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Israel_Hamas_2024_CSP.pdf