Blinken’s puzzling riddle
Ninety percent of American military aid to Ukraine stays in the United States. Or so that’s the puzzling riddle Secretary of State Antony Blinken posed during a recent press conference with the British Foreign Secretary.
Blinken seemed to be addressing an American audience as Congress considers whether to provide Kyiv with another $60 billion in aid. But his riddle muddied the frothing waters of public debate. When looking at the US investments in Ukraine’s resistance so far, one finds that most of the money goes to defense and security contractors, manufacturers, and array of other service providers whose roles are often unclear. The bottom line is that aid to Ukraine has fueled the American economy and produced more jobs.
Official figures seem to be different. According to the Pentagon, from February 24, 2022, to December 6, 2023, actual deliveries of military assistance to the territory of Ukraine via Presidential Drawdown Authority, known as the PDA channel, was $25.2 billion in the then-announced prices, and $19.0 billion in reality, or a $6.2 billion overvaluation of military aid. The Department of Defense revealed this huge discrepancy last June.
The Pentagon also reported that, via Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) channels, it placed orders with American companies to produce military materials for Ukraine for $23.7 billion. About $1.5 billion of that already had been sent.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance reported that US budget assistance to Ukraine was $22.9 billion.
Humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian citizens amounted to $2.6 billion, but including it in the “aid to Ukraine total” is incorrect, according to the State Department methodology, which calculates totals to governments, not to individuals.
Hence, from the official Pentagon, US State Department and Ukrainian Ministry of finance’s figures we find:
Therefore, out of the total $44.2 billion of all military assistance to Ukraine, 90 percent, or $39.8 billion, stayed in the United States, while the remaining 10 percent, or $4.4 billion, was transferred to Ukraine and other countries. But the latter figure clearly contradicts official Pentagon data, according to which $25.2 billion worth of military aid was actually delivered to Ukraine alone at then-announced prices, or $19.0 billion at later corrected prices.
Another approach to the Blinken’s puzzle would be to assume that both figures are correct - the Pentagon’s data of $25.2 billion military aid delivered and later recalculated at $19.0 billion, as well as Blinken’s 90 percent as the share of security assistance staying in the United States. By Blinken’s logic, the administration had spent ten times what it claims to have actually delivered to Ukraine. Blinken’s 90 percent-stays-home figure forces us to calculate that the absolute size of the Biden administration’s “military aid to Ukraine” expenditures invested on the territory of the US is not $23.7 billion but ranges eight to ten times that: between $190 billion and $252 billion.
This abstruse difference makes no sense. It is more than double the total allocations of the four so-called Ukraine aid bills passed by Congress in 2022. It has nothing common with any congressional appropriation or official reporting by US government agencies.
So what does all this mean, we don’t know. Blinken offers no clues to help solve his puzzle. All he did was to make it harder for the American public and their elected representatives to understand their sacrifice, past and future, for Ukraine.
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/blinkens-puzzling-riddle/
Blinken seemed to be addressing an American audience as Congress considers whether to provide Kyiv with another $60 billion in aid. But his riddle muddied the frothing waters of public debate. When looking at the US investments in Ukraine’s resistance so far, one finds that most of the money goes to defense and security contractors, manufacturers, and array of other service providers whose roles are often unclear. The bottom line is that aid to Ukraine has fueled the American economy and produced more jobs.
Official figures seem to be different. According to the Pentagon, from February 24, 2022, to December 6, 2023, actual deliveries of military assistance to the territory of Ukraine via Presidential Drawdown Authority, known as the PDA channel, was $25.2 billion in the then-announced prices, and $19.0 billion in reality, or a $6.2 billion overvaluation of military aid. The Department of Defense revealed this huge discrepancy last June.
The Pentagon also reported that, via Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) channels, it placed orders with American companies to produce military materials for Ukraine for $23.7 billion. About $1.5 billion of that already had been sent.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance reported that US budget assistance to Ukraine was $22.9 billion.
Humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian citizens amounted to $2.6 billion, but including it in the “aid to Ukraine total” is incorrect, according to the State Department methodology, which calculates totals to governments, not to individuals.
Hence, from the official Pentagon, US State Department and Ukrainian Ministry of finance’s figures we find:
- all US military aid and budgetary assistance actually transferred to government of Ukraine amounted to $43.4 billion ($19.0 billion via PDA channels, $1.5 billion via USAI and FMF channels, and $22.9 billion as budget support);
- all US military aid to Ukraine ($20.5 billion delivered and $23.7 billion financed but not yet transferred) amounted to $44.2 billion;
- all US assistance in all areas (including $43.4 billion as military and budgetary aid to the Ukrainian government and $2.6 billion as humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian citizens) amounted to $46.0 billion;
- all US assistance to both the state of Ukraine and its citizens in all areas ($46.0 billion actually provided and $23.7 billion already financed, but not yet transferred) amounted to $69.7 billion.
Therefore, out of the total $44.2 billion of all military assistance to Ukraine, 90 percent, or $39.8 billion, stayed in the United States, while the remaining 10 percent, or $4.4 billion, was transferred to Ukraine and other countries. But the latter figure clearly contradicts official Pentagon data, according to which $25.2 billion worth of military aid was actually delivered to Ukraine alone at then-announced prices, or $19.0 billion at later corrected prices.
Another approach to the Blinken’s puzzle would be to assume that both figures are correct - the Pentagon’s data of $25.2 billion military aid delivered and later recalculated at $19.0 billion, as well as Blinken’s 90 percent as the share of security assistance staying in the United States. By Blinken’s logic, the administration had spent ten times what it claims to have actually delivered to Ukraine. Blinken’s 90 percent-stays-home figure forces us to calculate that the absolute size of the Biden administration’s “military aid to Ukraine” expenditures invested on the territory of the US is not $23.7 billion but ranges eight to ten times that: between $190 billion and $252 billion.
This abstruse difference makes no sense. It is more than double the total allocations of the four so-called Ukraine aid bills passed by Congress in 2022. It has nothing common with any congressional appropriation or official reporting by US government agencies.
So what does all this mean, we don’t know. Blinken offers no clues to help solve his puzzle. All he did was to make it harder for the American public and their elected representatives to understand their sacrifice, past and future, for Ukraine.
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/blinkens-puzzling-riddle/