Close call...or maybe not

[aibretty]

Howdy All,

Here is a position I came across in a game on Scrabulous against Jason Brookes.

http://www.cross-tables.com/annotated.php?u=640#5


What's the verdict?

PREZES @ 07 [A] will give you an immediate 62 points, which is hard to deny, but ZEP @ 13G [AERS] = 36 has a lot to offer as well.  I have not simulated it on Quackle yet, but to me as I am

Comments

[hector31]

Championship player likes (R)AZE @ H12 = 39 [EPRS], but I don't like the consonant-heavy leave without a ton of vowels to play through on your next turn.

It's a better leave than you think - 3C/1V in general is friendly, and you've got a naked E at 15H (probably stays fairly open if the opponent overreacts to the O column threat), another accessible E at 12N, and the I on the star for possible -IER and -IES hits (albeit they won't score much). I like that the two Es are far enough away that you can probably get at one of them, if needed. Plus there are multiple Ts floating, a tile that sings with your leave.

Over a board my first instinct would probably be PREZES because 62 is a lot to say no to, but I'm 10K into the sim and I can certainly understand why RAZE is the clear leader. Beware the fallacy of the negative instance here - if you play anything less than a jumbo play, angling for a bingo next turn, and then fill it with seaweed, it's easy to immediately conclude, "ah, I made the wrong move." But I'm trusting the sim here, RAZE is probably the play. Drawing to -EPRS on a board that's not locked up is generally a good thing.

For a fairly new or inexperienced player (not you; think 1200 and below), I'd certainly suggest taking the highest scoring play you see now (SPAZ if you miss PREZES) since you might not know the bingo you fill next turn. But for intermediates and above, the sim result showcases the best move, I think.

And you're certainly not an idiot, this is not a 15-second turn. This sort of position deserves time and consideration. And you're wise to not jump on the first good play you see, albeit in many instances, that first play will be the right one.