global warming... and kittens!
In 1990 they said climate change would take at least a couple hundred years to have a significant effect. In 2001, the IPCC released a report that put the threshold at 2100. In 2009, a study funded by the British Government revised that estimate down to 2060. You can read about that here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6236690/Met-Office-catastrophic-climate-change-could-happen-with-50-years.html
Seems like every ten years, the estimate of how much more time we have to turn our act around gets cut in half. So by 2020, they'll estimate we've got 25 years; in 2030, 12 years; and so by simple projective logic, we can expect the tipping point will actually occur sometime around 2043.
Another report by the IPCC in 2007 stated that rich nations needed to reduce their carbon emissions by 80% in order to prevent catastrophic climate change. Now, the IPCC is not some fringe organization-- they're run by the UN, and have 190-something member countries, and their reports are based on a compilation of climate-related papers; they don't do any of the research themselves. So they're probably the most reliable source.
Regardless of whether my adventure in projective statistics is valid (it probably isn't), we have less than 50 years to cut 80% of our emissions. Kinda scary, considering we haven't even stopped accelerating their growth.
As promised, here's a video of kittens riding a roomba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxW3GWZ5hI
Seems like every ten years, the estimate of how much more time we have to turn our act around gets cut in half. So by 2020, they'll estimate we've got 25 years; in 2030, 12 years; and so by simple projective logic, we can expect the tipping point will actually occur sometime around 2043.
Another report by the IPCC in 2007 stated that rich nations needed to reduce their carbon emissions by 80% in order to prevent catastrophic climate change. Now, the IPCC is not some fringe organization-- they're run by the UN, and have 190-something member countries, and their reports are based on a compilation of climate-related papers; they don't do any of the research themselves. So they're probably the most reliable source.
Regardless of whether my adventure in projective statistics is valid (it probably isn't), we have less than 50 years to cut 80% of our emissions. Kinda scary, considering we haven't even stopped accelerating their growth.
As promised, here's a video of kittens riding a roomba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxW3GWZ5hI