Obama
I read this interesting article on Wednesday, the day after the New Hampshire primary: http://www.slate.com/id/2181923/ See below for an interesting speculation as to why the pre-election polls did not reflect the outcome (there are four other possible reasons in the article).
1. Bradley Effect: It seemed like a nice wonky little point when Polipundit speculated on the Reverse Bradley Effect--the idea that Iowa's public caucuses led Dem voters to demonstrate their lack of prejudice by caucusing for Obama. Now this is the CW of the hour. Polipundit wrote:
I suspect that Obama may have scored better than he would have in a secret-ballot election, and benefited from a Reverse Bradley Effect.
New Hampshire, of course, is a secret ballot election. Voters might have told pollsters one thing but done another in private.** New Hampshirites I ran into Tuesday night mentioned that the state was very late ratifying the MLK Holiday.
As I was driving home from a measely and irritating 1/2 of work at 8 in the morning on a Saturday, I was listening to NPR and to Sen. Clinton vs. Sen. Obama. I also hearkened back to the only bit of editorial in this week's The Week (my favorite magazine): last year a bunch of middle-class, middle-age, white intellectuals were talking about Obama's momentum and truly believed he would be the next candidate. The three black men (same economic status and age) shared looks, shook their heads and said, "It will never happen." A couple of my friends from middle America said, "There are too many racist hicks out here to vote for Obama." Yet he took Iowa. Then, it finally dawned on me (yes, I can be a bit slow): this is the Democratic primary. While indies have the opportunity to show their support, the Republicans haven't had the opportunity to show how they would vote for a non-white candidate or a female candidate. So while they left may embrace either candidate caring more about their campaign than their color (or genitals?), will the rest of America be able to see past their differences in the general election? I have to admit, that thought had occurred to me in the past, but in the middle of the primary fervor, I forgot.
Fun fact: we will be in South Carolina on Jan 26: the day of their democratic primary. Will native son Edwards pull of the big win he so needs? We shall see!
1. Bradley Effect: It seemed like a nice wonky little point when Polipundit speculated on the Reverse Bradley Effect--the idea that Iowa's public caucuses led Dem voters to demonstrate their lack of prejudice by caucusing for Obama. Now this is the CW of the hour. Polipundit wrote:
I suspect that Obama may have scored better than he would have in a secret-ballot election, and benefited from a Reverse Bradley Effect.
New Hampshire, of course, is a secret ballot election. Voters might have told pollsters one thing but done another in private.** New Hampshirites I ran into Tuesday night mentioned that the state was very late ratifying the MLK Holiday.
As I was driving home from a measely and irritating 1/2 of work at 8 in the morning on a Saturday, I was listening to NPR and to Sen. Clinton vs. Sen. Obama. I also hearkened back to the only bit of editorial in this week's The Week (my favorite magazine): last year a bunch of middle-class, middle-age, white intellectuals were talking about Obama's momentum and truly believed he would be the next candidate. The three black men (same economic status and age) shared looks, shook their heads and said, "It will never happen." A couple of my friends from middle America said, "There are too many racist hicks out here to vote for Obama." Yet he took Iowa. Then, it finally dawned on me (yes, I can be a bit slow): this is the Democratic primary. While indies have the opportunity to show their support, the Republicans haven't had the opportunity to show how they would vote for a non-white candidate or a female candidate. So while they left may embrace either candidate caring more about their campaign than their color (or genitals?), will the rest of America be able to see past their differences in the general election? I have to admit, that thought had occurred to me in the past, but in the middle of the primary fervor, I forgot.
Fun fact: we will be in South Carolina on Jan 26: the day of their democratic primary. Will native son Edwards pull of the big win he so needs? We shall see!