CCCP R.I.P.
Сегодня, товарищи, исполняется 20 лет со дня официального и юридического прекращения существования Советского Союза как государственного образования и субъекта международного права. Посему желаю привлечь внимание ваше, товарищи, к подготовленной мною некоторое количество лет назад хронике событий, благодаря которым это стало возможным. Или, скорее ( Read more... )
According to Maddison the GDP per capita of USSR between 1913 and 1990 grew form 1488 to 6894 thus 4,6 times.
1913 Russias GDP per capita was in one line with the poorer cathegory of European countries while vastly surpassing most Asian and African countries.
Sadly most of this poorer European countries became Soviet after 1945 thus a comparison becomes only possible with the 3 that remained capitalist, Greece, Portugal and Spain (even if Spain was a bit higher). Greece 1913: 1592 1990: 10 015 growth is 6,3 times.....
Portugal 1913: 1250 1990: 10 826 growth: 8,66 times
Spain 1913: 2056 1990: 12 055 growth: 5,86 times....
All 3 countries had vast superiority in growth over the USSR even before they joined the European Union and bouth Spain and Greece had to go through devestatin crisis (in GDP terms).
So if we take the cathegory of poor European countries of which Russia was clearly a member 1913, we get the worst resaults for Tussia in terms of growth.
But things get worse: Syria grew nearly as fast as the USSR (even surpassed it up to 1985 but went down in the 1985-1990 period), Turkey grew 4,45 times in this period (no one is speaking about a Turkish economic miracle though and bouth Syria and Turkey have no oil), Before the revolution 1978 Iran grew very fast (6,4 times between 1913 and 1977), in 1977 it reached 6402 GDP per capita (with the USSR having 6454), even Brazil grew 6 times and there are many more.... So even if we take the postcolonial 3rd world, the USSR only looks impressive in comparison with failed states that didnt grow at all (or stopped growing after the colonizers left) or grew less then 2 times, but 1913 Russia was far past such countries anyway. Thus why people speak about an "economic miracle" is beyond me also I dont see why a Russia with a free market shouldnt have developed like Greece, Spain and Portugal, after all it developed far faster in the 1890-1913 period.
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I think he used the CIA data (which many asume are to high).
His data for the 1927-1940 period seems to be taken right from Bergson in the 1960s (later Bergson wrote that he overestimated the growth). If I remember correctly even R.Allen gives a smaller growth rate for this period.
I think such numbers very well destroy the myth that the soviet model of development somhow enables extremly fast growth, as we can see the only "developing" countries the USSR can beat in growth are 3rd world failed states. If we also concider that over half of this GDP went into the military and government sectors......
В.А.Мельянцев said it well:
"В результате, цели догоняющего (и тем более перегоняющего) развития, которые были провозглашены в СССР, не были реализованы. Разрыв между СССР/Россией и развитыми странами по критерию подушевого ВВП в целом не изменился в 1913-1990 гг., оставаясь на уровне 29-31%. А с 1970-х гг. обозначилось реальное отставание практически по всем направлениям, включая важнейшие характеристики человеческого фактора.
Можно, однако, усилить этот вывод, если сравнить соответствующие показатели ВВП за вычетом инвестиций и военных расходов, то есть по сути дела по индикатору подушевого потребления. Получается, что, во-первых, в 1913-1990 гг. подушевой рост этого агрегата составил лишь 1.5% в год и был ниже, чем во многих десятках стран; во-вторых, он едва ли утроился за 77 лет. В-третьих, по индикатору подушевого потребления разрыв между Россией/СССР и ныне развитыми странами увеличился в полтора-два раза - с 28-30% в 1913 г. до 16-18% в 1990 г."
And he dosnt even use newer data about military spending (from Быстрова И.В), if he did this, the picture would be truly devestating.....
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