You Can't Stop What's Coming: Everybody's Doing It! Last Ditch Oscar Predix 2007
That time of the year again came not too soon enough as I was getting logged down with so many things to view and judge. With that in mind, just like last time, I will now do that old “should win, will win” deal that everybody has been doing for the past two weeks but of course, in only the categories that involve anything or anyone that I care about.
Choices are in bold. Here we go:
Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who I Want to Win: Atonement (duh!) I want it to win as many awards as possible.
Who They Want to Win: No Country for Old Men has been the critical forerunner with There Will Be Blood the default no.2 as both also contain two acting nominees that are locked by consensus as the winners. The American Academy though may be split in who they want to support giving a slight chance to Atonement, Juno and Michael Clayton to steal. Atonement has won best picture honors at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs so it has a strong chance. Meanwhile Juno (Indie Spirit winner) has the threat of containing fresh new faces in all the categories it is nominated in so yes it could be that little picture that ended up having the last laugh. Michael Clayton has George Clooney and the Academy loves home for some reason. Rumor has it the Brits are all pulling for Atonement so I’d be happy if they/we got their/our way. I won’t be upset if NCFOM or TWBB take it. I will go “okay” if Juno or Michael Clayton do.
Best Director:
Juno - Jason Reitman
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men - Ethan Coen; Joel Coen
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Julian Schnabel
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who I Want to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson. Ten years late is just as acceptable.
Who They Want to Win: Again, NCFOM has claimed majority of director prizes as well as the DGA (that seems to make it official). Anderson meanwhile is “mature enough” for the Academy to recognize and is also a contender. He is however not the one who might upset the Coens. That would be Schnabel who is in the “Meirelles” position as a contender in a foreign language movie with multiple nominations. Schnabel won the Golden Globe but is he strong enough to upset an American yet alone an American who is due? Possibly not. I say the Coens still take it.
Best Actor:
Eastern Promises - Viggo Mortensen
In the Valley of Elah - Tommy Lee Jones
Michael Clayton - George Clooney
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Johnny Depp
There Will Be Blood - Daniel Day-Lewis
Who I Want to Win: It’s Daniel Day-Lewis’s to, well, he can’t even lose it. I was of course impressed by the performance but did I love it? Not as much but among the nominees I’d like him to win too. I liked Tommy Lee Jones’s performance but was it enough for best actor? I’m in the middle of that. I was in more of a romantic mood rather than a nihilistic mood this year but since I didn’t get who I want, I root for the next best thing so I’ll root for Daniel.
Who They Want to Win: No contest. Daniel Day-Lewis gets it. Only George Clooney voiced out that he wanted himself to win but he won’t win. Can’t and mustn’t actually (if only he had controlled himself in that last scene with Tilda).
Best Actress:
Away from Her - Julie Christie
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Cate Blanchett
Juno - Ellen Page
La Môme - Marion Cotillard
The Savages - Laura Linney
Who I Want to Win: I must admit that I have only seen Cate, Julie and Ellen’s performances in full while only glimpsing at clips of Laura and Marion’s. Julie is my favorite. Ellen Page is getting backlash that she just played herself in Juno (wow, so a lot of people DO know her enough then?) but how come Cate wasn’t getting that kind of feedback for her Elizabeth: Full Throttle (my favorite among the proposed audience rewrites) performance? No offense but they were both overpowering in different senses, not bad performances but tend to be more for a type of taste. Ah but Julie gave one that everybody could understand and relate to. There’s the power that makes me want her to win (and not because of previous graces).
Who They Want to Win: That recent interview with random Academy members was scary. They were all voting for Marion.
Best Supporting Actor:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Casey Affleck
Charlie Wilson's War - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Into the Wild - Hal Holbrook
Michael Clayton - Tom Wilkinson
No Country for Old Men - Javier Bardem
Who I Want to Win: Look doc, if even the BAFTAs, who have a history of wanting to differentiate themselves from the American Academy awards, weren’t brave enough to swerve Javier Bardem, do you think I or anyone else would? Besides, I loved his performance and his character was probably the best written one for the year. Casey Affleck gave a great and affecting work in his own right but really, it was a lead role relegated by the power of Celebrity to the supporting ranks. I like the two men but it’s the former stripper first before Ben Affleck’s baby brother.
Who They Want to Win: Hal Holbrook at 83 (same as Ruby Dee!) could garner sympathy heat. He was the best, no, the only good thing of that damned movie too. I can see how Wilkinson got nominated but the performance wasn’t for me. As for PSH……. Eh? Really? At least he was the only one. Oh yeah, Bardem goes BOO! and takes the statue.
Best Supporting Actress:
American Gangster - Ruby Dee
Atonement - Saoirse Ronan
Gone Baby Gone - Amy Ryan
I'm Not There. - Cate Blanchett
Michael Clayton - Tilda Swinton
Who I Want to Win: My personal rankings go as follow: (1) Tilda (2) Saoirse (3) Cate (4) Amy (5) Ruby.
Who They Want to Win: My favorite category has been wonderfully the most volatile. Majority of critics prizes went to Amy (that was a weird couple of days wasn’t it?), Cate got the Golden Globe and Indie Spirit, Ruby got the SAG and Tilda got the BAFTA. Remember that British support for Atonement? Doesn’t seem to be transferring over to Saoirse who deserves some accolades for her work just as much. But she’s young and the Academy Awards favor her. But Ruby is old and a respected veteran with a career nomination so the Academy also favors her. They think Tilda is British and she is in a George Clooney joint and the only one strong enough among her peers from that movie who is allowed to win so the Academy favors her. Amy is American and quite new so the Academy also favors her. Oh dear, what a fabulous headache that can only be cured once the envelope has been opened and the card read.
Best Original Screenplay:
Juno - Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
Who I Want to Win: Ew. Those are our nominees? Not feeling it. I’ll go with Diablo for being able to make a screenplay that mannered and quirky acceptable and loved by many. Gives us all hope. My second choice would be Gilroy for giving us Tilda’s rehearsal scenes.
Who They Want to Win: Consensus has it that the former stripper gets it. What was it about Michael Clayton’s screenplay that they liked anyway? My brain has not been rodent infested so I’m not pulling for Ratatouille. Besides, Animated is probably there’s (unfortunately). Lars and the Real Girl was just not plausible enough in regards to the town’s reaction (seriously, it was THAT easy?).
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
Away from Her - Sarah Polley
No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen; Ethan Coen
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Ronald Harwood
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who I Want to Win: Have not yet seen The Diving Bell and the Butterfly but as with most of these movies, the screenplays didn’t seem to factor much into the respective loves that they have been receiving (why is that now…….). I’m all for Atonement but my heart tugs for Sarah Polley winning. NCFOM and TWBB both gave us stories that are not usually accepted but hey, they worked and became hits. That ability also deserves praise. I guess this is the category I have the least, if any, issues with as regards to who will win.
Who They Want to Win: Nowadays, screenplay awards are given to runners-up but with a lead that tends to get murky, I say it’s a toss-up between NCFOM and TWBB. Prove my prognostication a bit wrong, please.
Best Cinematography:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins
Atonement - Seamus McGarvey
No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Janusz Kaminski (I)
There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit
Who I Want to Win: You know I like style, especially a style that highlights nearly unrealistically reality. I give those notices to Atonement and to bits of Jesse James.
Who They Want to Win: Much has been said that the directing and cinematography was “overdone” for Atonement. Yet another category that either NCFOM or TWBB will take. Again, prove my prognostication wrong, please.
Best Song:
August Rush - Jamal Joseph; Charles Mack; Tevin Thomas - "Raise It Up".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "Happy Working Song".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "So Close".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "That's How You Know".
Once - Glen Hansard; Markéta Irglová - "Falling Slowly"
Who I Want to Win: That’s two copies of August Rush that have conked out on me so apologies for not being able to hear their song. Happy Working Song was the only one that felt “Disney” while still maintaining the “we’re spoofing” vibe. But BEST SONG OF THE YEAR? Hmmm. Falling Slowly wasn’t my favorite (as a song or performance) from Once but at this point, we’ll take any recognition for that movie that we can.
Who They Want to Win: Ah yes, the history of retarded decisions that always damn the Academy that is of the music branch (but to be fair, the make-up branch is picking up the slack in the last couple of years). They’ll probably give it to That’s How You Know.
Best Score:
3:10 to Yuma - Marco Beltrami
Atonement - Dario Marianelli
The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias
Michael Clayton - James Newton Howard
Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino
Who I Want to Win: Unfortunate that TWBB’s score was disqualified as it was so well integrated into the movie’s theme and tone. Atonement does that too!
Who They Want to Win: Ratatouille might win? I don’t really know. This is one of the categories that Atonement is the one to upset.
Best Costume:
Across the Universe - Albert Wolsky
Atonement - Jacqueline Durran
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Alexandra Byrne
La Môme - Marit Allen
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Colleen Atwood
Who I Want to Win: You might think that’s my Atonement bias rearing up again but honestly, it’s my choice and favorite among the designs. The green dress is as they say, already classic.
Who They Want to Win: Across the Universe was too much of a mess that I’m forgetting if the costumes helped to contribute or be even more of a detriment. Marit Allen passed away recently but I don’t know if that will help. The Golden Age costumes were great to stare at due to the rapid nature of how they appeared (like, a new one for every scene and we also get the BATTLE WIG). I’m starting to get tired of Colleen Atwood’s designs in the sense that I’m starting to know what to expect out of her as soon as I find out she’s involved.
Best Animated:
Persepolis - Marjane Satrapi; Vincent Paronnaud
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
Surf's Up - Ash Brannon; Chris Buck
Who I Want to Win: Persepolis
Who They Want to Win: Ratatouille. Where the hell did Surf’s Up come from? Thank goodness, no ogres this year. And gah, Academy! A lot of you have been guest voice actors if not guest characters in The Simpsons! No love reciprocity?
And that’s all I care to comment about. Stay tuned on Tuesday for you know what!
Choices are in bold. Here we go:
Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who I Want to Win: Atonement (duh!) I want it to win as many awards as possible.
Who They Want to Win: No Country for Old Men has been the critical forerunner with There Will Be Blood the default no.2 as both also contain two acting nominees that are locked by consensus as the winners. The American Academy though may be split in who they want to support giving a slight chance to Atonement, Juno and Michael Clayton to steal. Atonement has won best picture honors at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs so it has a strong chance. Meanwhile Juno (Indie Spirit winner) has the threat of containing fresh new faces in all the categories it is nominated in so yes it could be that little picture that ended up having the last laugh. Michael Clayton has George Clooney and the Academy loves home for some reason. Rumor has it the Brits are all pulling for Atonement so I’d be happy if they/we got their/our way. I won’t be upset if NCFOM or TWBB take it. I will go “okay” if Juno or Michael Clayton do.
Best Director:
Juno - Jason Reitman
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men - Ethan Coen; Joel Coen
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Julian Schnabel
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who I Want to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson. Ten years late is just as acceptable.
Who They Want to Win: Again, NCFOM has claimed majority of director prizes as well as the DGA (that seems to make it official). Anderson meanwhile is “mature enough” for the Academy to recognize and is also a contender. He is however not the one who might upset the Coens. That would be Schnabel who is in the “Meirelles” position as a contender in a foreign language movie with multiple nominations. Schnabel won the Golden Globe but is he strong enough to upset an American yet alone an American who is due? Possibly not. I say the Coens still take it.
Best Actor:
Eastern Promises - Viggo Mortensen
In the Valley of Elah - Tommy Lee Jones
Michael Clayton - George Clooney
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Johnny Depp
There Will Be Blood - Daniel Day-Lewis
Who I Want to Win: It’s Daniel Day-Lewis’s to, well, he can’t even lose it. I was of course impressed by the performance but did I love it? Not as much but among the nominees I’d like him to win too. I liked Tommy Lee Jones’s performance but was it enough for best actor? I’m in the middle of that. I was in more of a romantic mood rather than a nihilistic mood this year but since I didn’t get who I want, I root for the next best thing so I’ll root for Daniel.
Who They Want to Win: No contest. Daniel Day-Lewis gets it. Only George Clooney voiced out that he wanted himself to win but he won’t win. Can’t and mustn’t actually (if only he had controlled himself in that last scene with Tilda).
Best Actress:
Away from Her - Julie Christie
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Cate Blanchett
Juno - Ellen Page
La Môme - Marion Cotillard
The Savages - Laura Linney
Who I Want to Win: I must admit that I have only seen Cate, Julie and Ellen’s performances in full while only glimpsing at clips of Laura and Marion’s. Julie is my favorite. Ellen Page is getting backlash that she just played herself in Juno (wow, so a lot of people DO know her enough then?) but how come Cate wasn’t getting that kind of feedback for her Elizabeth: Full Throttle (my favorite among the proposed audience rewrites) performance? No offense but they were both overpowering in different senses, not bad performances but tend to be more for a type of taste. Ah but Julie gave one that everybody could understand and relate to. There’s the power that makes me want her to win (and not because of previous graces).
Who They Want to Win: That recent interview with random Academy members was scary. They were all voting for Marion.
Best Supporting Actor:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Casey Affleck
Charlie Wilson's War - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Into the Wild - Hal Holbrook
Michael Clayton - Tom Wilkinson
No Country for Old Men - Javier Bardem
Who I Want to Win: Look doc, if even the BAFTAs, who have a history of wanting to differentiate themselves from the American Academy awards, weren’t brave enough to swerve Javier Bardem, do you think I or anyone else would? Besides, I loved his performance and his character was probably the best written one for the year. Casey Affleck gave a great and affecting work in his own right but really, it was a lead role relegated by the power of Celebrity to the supporting ranks. I like the two men but it’s the former stripper first before Ben Affleck’s baby brother.
Who They Want to Win: Hal Holbrook at 83 (same as Ruby Dee!) could garner sympathy heat. He was the best, no, the only good thing of that damned movie too. I can see how Wilkinson got nominated but the performance wasn’t for me. As for PSH……. Eh? Really? At least he was the only one. Oh yeah, Bardem goes BOO! and takes the statue.
Best Supporting Actress:
American Gangster - Ruby Dee
Atonement - Saoirse Ronan
Gone Baby Gone - Amy Ryan
I'm Not There. - Cate Blanchett
Michael Clayton - Tilda Swinton
Who I Want to Win: My personal rankings go as follow: (1) Tilda (2) Saoirse (3) Cate (4) Amy (5) Ruby.
Who They Want to Win: My favorite category has been wonderfully the most volatile. Majority of critics prizes went to Amy (that was a weird couple of days wasn’t it?), Cate got the Golden Globe and Indie Spirit, Ruby got the SAG and Tilda got the BAFTA. Remember that British support for Atonement? Doesn’t seem to be transferring over to Saoirse who deserves some accolades for her work just as much. But she’s young and the Academy Awards favor her. But Ruby is old and a respected veteran with a career nomination so the Academy also favors her. They think Tilda is British and she is in a George Clooney joint and the only one strong enough among her peers from that movie who is allowed to win so the Academy favors her. Amy is American and quite new so the Academy also favors her. Oh dear, what a fabulous headache that can only be cured once the envelope has been opened and the card read.
Best Original Screenplay:
Juno - Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
Who I Want to Win: Ew. Those are our nominees? Not feeling it. I’ll go with Diablo for being able to make a screenplay that mannered and quirky acceptable and loved by many. Gives us all hope. My second choice would be Gilroy for giving us Tilda’s rehearsal scenes.
Who They Want to Win: Consensus has it that the former stripper gets it. What was it about Michael Clayton’s screenplay that they liked anyway? My brain has not been rodent infested so I’m not pulling for Ratatouille. Besides, Animated is probably there’s (unfortunately). Lars and the Real Girl was just not plausible enough in regards to the town’s reaction (seriously, it was THAT easy?).
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
Away from Her - Sarah Polley
No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen; Ethan Coen
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Ronald Harwood
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who I Want to Win: Have not yet seen The Diving Bell and the Butterfly but as with most of these movies, the screenplays didn’t seem to factor much into the respective loves that they have been receiving (why is that now…….). I’m all for Atonement but my heart tugs for Sarah Polley winning. NCFOM and TWBB both gave us stories that are not usually accepted but hey, they worked and became hits. That ability also deserves praise. I guess this is the category I have the least, if any, issues with as regards to who will win.
Who They Want to Win: Nowadays, screenplay awards are given to runners-up but with a lead that tends to get murky, I say it’s a toss-up between NCFOM and TWBB. Prove my prognostication a bit wrong, please.
Best Cinematography:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins
Atonement - Seamus McGarvey
No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins
Le Scaphandre et le papillon - Janusz Kaminski (I)
There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit
Who I Want to Win: You know I like style, especially a style that highlights nearly unrealistically reality. I give those notices to Atonement and to bits of Jesse James.
Who They Want to Win: Much has been said that the directing and cinematography was “overdone” for Atonement. Yet another category that either NCFOM or TWBB will take. Again, prove my prognostication wrong, please.
Best Song:
August Rush - Jamal Joseph; Charles Mack; Tevin Thomas - "Raise It Up".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "Happy Working Song".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "So Close".
Enchanted - Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics) - "That's How You Know".
Once - Glen Hansard; Markéta Irglová - "Falling Slowly"
Who I Want to Win: That’s two copies of August Rush that have conked out on me so apologies for not being able to hear their song. Happy Working Song was the only one that felt “Disney” while still maintaining the “we’re spoofing” vibe. But BEST SONG OF THE YEAR? Hmmm. Falling Slowly wasn’t my favorite (as a song or performance) from Once but at this point, we’ll take any recognition for that movie that we can.
Who They Want to Win: Ah yes, the history of retarded decisions that always damn the Academy that is of the music branch (but to be fair, the make-up branch is picking up the slack in the last couple of years). They’ll probably give it to That’s How You Know.
Best Score:
3:10 to Yuma - Marco Beltrami
Atonement - Dario Marianelli
The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias
Michael Clayton - James Newton Howard
Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino
Who I Want to Win: Unfortunate that TWBB’s score was disqualified as it was so well integrated into the movie’s theme and tone. Atonement does that too!
Who They Want to Win: Ratatouille might win? I don’t really know. This is one of the categories that Atonement is the one to upset.
Best Costume:
Across the Universe - Albert Wolsky
Atonement - Jacqueline Durran
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Alexandra Byrne
La Môme - Marit Allen
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Colleen Atwood
Who I Want to Win: You might think that’s my Atonement bias rearing up again but honestly, it’s my choice and favorite among the designs. The green dress is as they say, already classic.
Who They Want to Win: Across the Universe was too much of a mess that I’m forgetting if the costumes helped to contribute or be even more of a detriment. Marit Allen passed away recently but I don’t know if that will help. The Golden Age costumes were great to stare at due to the rapid nature of how they appeared (like, a new one for every scene and we also get the BATTLE WIG). I’m starting to get tired of Colleen Atwood’s designs in the sense that I’m starting to know what to expect out of her as soon as I find out she’s involved.
Best Animated:
Persepolis - Marjane Satrapi; Vincent Paronnaud
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
Surf's Up - Ash Brannon; Chris Buck
Who I Want to Win: Persepolis
Who They Want to Win: Ratatouille. Where the hell did Surf’s Up come from? Thank goodness, no ogres this year. And gah, Academy! A lot of you have been guest voice actors if not guest characters in The Simpsons! No love reciprocity?
And that’s all I care to comment about. Stay tuned on Tuesday for you know what!