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South Korea’s military has a new enemy: Population math
“With our current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Downsizing of the force will be inevitable,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University.
To maintain current troops levels, the South Korean military needs to enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers a year, he said.
But in 2022, fewer than 250,000 babies were born. Assuming about a 50-50 male-female split, that means in 20 years, when those children are of the age to join the military, only about 125,000 men will be available for the 200,000 spots needed. And the annual number of newborns is only forecasted to drop further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, according to Statistics Korea.
The number of applicants for commissioned officer positions has fallen over the years, from about 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022, according to Defense Ministry data.
...conscripting women could solve South Korea’s problem
Israel has conscription and 40% of its conscripted force is female, according to the Jewish Women’s Archive. In the all-volunteer US and Canadian armed forces, more than 16% of the troops are women. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/30/asia/south-korea-birth-rate-military-strength-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
“With our current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Downsizing of the force will be inevitable,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University.
To maintain current troops levels, the South Korean military needs to enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers a year, he said.
But in 2022, fewer than 250,000 babies were born. Assuming about a 50-50 male-female split, that means in 20 years, when those children are of the age to join the military, only about 125,000 men will be available for the 200,000 spots needed. And the annual number of newborns is only forecasted to drop further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, according to Statistics Korea.
The number of applicants for commissioned officer positions has fallen over the years, from about 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022, according to Defense Ministry data.
...conscripting women could solve South Korea’s problem
Israel has conscription and 40% of its conscripted force is female, according to the Jewish Women’s Archive. In the all-volunteer US and Canadian armed forces, more than 16% of the troops are women. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/30/asia/south-korea-birth-rate-military-strength-intl-hnk-ml/index.html