realpolitik and Israel
I'd like to consider a question of realpolitik. A question regarding Israel.
Suppose the United States has no moral obligations to the state of Israel. (I'm inclined to think it does, but for now let's suppose not.) Suppose also that we can simply ignore the domestic political ramifications of policy toward Israel. (This, obviously, is a fantastical supposition, but run with it.) Given this background, would it be in America's national interest to publicly renounce our unusually deep commitments to the Israeli state?
To be clear, the proposal isn't that we turn anti-Israeli. Rather, we would simply demote Israel from its current place - the pivot point of our entire Mid-East policy - to something more like Austria (which has a similarly sized population). Israel would remain an ally, and its interests would be taken into account, but no more so than those of any small ally. Hence, if we are willing to ignore the pleas of a much larger ally (e.g. France), we should be willing to do the same, but more so, toward Israel. It would, of course, cease to be the single largest beneficiary of US foreign aid.
The benefits of doing so, of course, might be substantial. This would do more than anything else to undermine the recruitment of extremists in the Islamic world. Our relations with nations from Malaysia to Iraq to Bolivia would improve. We'd be a much more credible intermediary in settling the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. And Israel would be far less likely to, say, announce thousands of new settlements while the American Vice President is in the region urging it to do exactly not that.
There are downsides. Israeli intelligence is excellent, and we would lose access to much of it. We would also lose a certain amount of influence, and so perhaps become unable to restrain Israel from, say, bombing Iran. Arguably we currently benefit from having such a secure alliance in a very strategic location.
But, on balance, is this enough? Given all that our friendship with Israel costs us, are there reasons of high state policy (setting aside, remember, morality and domestic politics) to abandon the special tie?
Suppose the United States has no moral obligations to the state of Israel. (I'm inclined to think it does, but for now let's suppose not.) Suppose also that we can simply ignore the domestic political ramifications of policy toward Israel. (This, obviously, is a fantastical supposition, but run with it.) Given this background, would it be in America's national interest to publicly renounce our unusually deep commitments to the Israeli state?
To be clear, the proposal isn't that we turn anti-Israeli. Rather, we would simply demote Israel from its current place - the pivot point of our entire Mid-East policy - to something more like Austria (which has a similarly sized population). Israel would remain an ally, and its interests would be taken into account, but no more so than those of any small ally. Hence, if we are willing to ignore the pleas of a much larger ally (e.g. France), we should be willing to do the same, but more so, toward Israel. It would, of course, cease to be the single largest beneficiary of US foreign aid.
The benefits of doing so, of course, might be substantial. This would do more than anything else to undermine the recruitment of extremists in the Islamic world. Our relations with nations from Malaysia to Iraq to Bolivia would improve. We'd be a much more credible intermediary in settling the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. And Israel would be far less likely to, say, announce thousands of new settlements while the American Vice President is in the region urging it to do exactly not that.
There are downsides. Israeli intelligence is excellent, and we would lose access to much of it. We would also lose a certain amount of influence, and so perhaps become unable to restrain Israel from, say, bombing Iran. Arguably we currently benefit from having such a secure alliance in a very strategic location.
But, on balance, is this enough? Given all that our friendship with Israel costs us, are there reasons of high state policy (setting aside, remember, morality and domestic politics) to abandon the special tie?