It's unlikely to make much of a difference in a Tory stronghold like Hampshire
Actually, it is, two reasons, one I predicted ages back--it'll allow UKIP, or another more traditionalist right wing party, to emerge, initially getting low scores, but growing. I very much suspect UKIP will come close to getting an MP in somewhere like Devon if AV passes at the next GE.
Second is more subtle. There have long been a lot of liberally inclined people who loathed the collectivism of Labour, as well as mistructing their competence generally. They've voted strongly Tory for the last four decades or so not because they were Tories, but because they wanted to keep Labour out.
They've not voted Lib Dem as they viewed them as Labour-lite (which was never, ever, true). Now, with the coalition, the LDs have proved they genuinely will work with both the big parties if that's how the votes fall.
Our local canvassing is showing we're losing people back to Labour that got fed up under Blair/Brown, but we're picking up a lot of people we used to categorise as "soft Tories". they're not tories, they never were, they never really liked Thatcher, but she was the lesser of two evils for them.
I knew there would be some, but there appear to be more than I expected. So in areas like Hampshire (and Devon), where Labour's out of the running, LDs might come more into contention, especially as the UkIP vote rises amongst those headbangers who think Gove and Cameron are two wishy washy liberal and left wing.
Actually, it is, two reasons, one I predicted ages back--it'll allow UKIP, or another more traditionalist right wing party, to emerge, initially getting low scores, but growing. I very much suspect UKIP will come close to getting an MP in somewhere like Devon if AV passes at the next GE.
Second is more subtle. There have long been a lot of liberally inclined people who loathed the collectivism of Labour, as well as mistructing their competence generally. They've voted strongly Tory for the last four decades or so not because they were Tories, but because they wanted to keep Labour out.
They've not voted Lib Dem as they viewed them as Labour-lite (which was never, ever, true). Now, with the coalition, the LDs have proved they genuinely will work with both the big parties if that's how the votes fall.
Our local canvassing is showing we're losing people back to Labour that got fed up under Blair/Brown, but we're picking up a lot of people we used to categorise as "soft Tories". they're not tories, they never were, they never really liked Thatcher, but she was the lesser of two evils for them.
I knew there would be some, but there appear to be more than I expected. So in areas like Hampshire (and Devon), where Labour's out of the running, LDs might come more into contention, especially as the UkIP vote rises amongst those headbangers who think Gove and Cameron are two wishy washy liberal and left wing.
Scary, innit.
But yeah, I agre with the rest.
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