Response From MTA
I apologize for the long lapse in posting this; it should have been done some time ago.
Back in January, i shared with you a correspondence sent to Ralign Wells, Administrator of the Maryland Transit Authority. Mr. Wells not only got back to me within a week of my email, but he invited me to speak with him live over the phone. He explained that he felt i'd taken the time to really think through the issues, and that he also wanted to take some time to properly address my concerns.
It took a little time for our schedules to line up, but Mr. Wells and i finally spoke at length and had a great conversation. He agreed with my general views about the challenges that mass transit faces, and also addressed my concern about early departures in detail.
First, he explained that the main cause of early departures has to do with "filling gaps" in service. Very often, an interruption of service of one kind or another causes a scheduled train or bus to go "missing" from the schedule. When this happens, the MTA needs to make a decision; either they can make everyone who would have been riding that train or bus be delayed by the entire period in between services on that line, or they can attempt to "close the gap" by rushing the next train or bus on that line ahead of schedule as much as safely possible.
The decision comes down to a trade-off. The former option leaves a great number of people waiting a whole service period -- often 20-60 minutes or more on some lines -- before their transit arrives. The latter option seeks to reduce that wait time by as much as possible, but at the sacrifice of causing a fraction of the riders on the next scheduled service to miss it and need to wait similarly. In the end, MTA prefers to do the latter, with the rationale being that the best-case recovery is to provide as frequent service as possible on any given line.
Secondarily, Mr. Wells explained that the MTA (much like other mass transit systems) is currently exploring technology that will allow riders to determine the arrival of their service in real-time based on the actual location of the train or bus in question. This technology, which makes use of GPSs linked with wireless communications systems and the internet, would allow a rider to predict service arrival much more accurately than any schedule. In fact, he added, it might allow the system to dispose with the idea of a fixed-to-the-minute schedule altogether.
While my own inclinations might be to provide less frequent service on a reliably rigid schedule, i recognize that this might be a very personal preference. Such an approach works well for people who can modify their own schedules around the transit schedule, or for those who only need to travel one route on their commute. For those who are traveling on more of an as-needed basis or who need to make many transfers between routes, maximized frequency of service is more important. In the ideal case, of course, service frequency would be high enough that no one would need to wait long regardless of schedule (e.g., the core of New York City's subway system), but i recognize that MTA will need greater support from funding sources and riders alike before it could implement such a level of service within the Baltimore area's infrastructure.
Overall, i respect Mr. Wells' explanation very much, and even moreso, i appreciate the dedication to service that was exemplified in the time he took out of a busy schedule to speak with me. He encouraged me to keep in touch, explaining that having dedicated riders acting as additional eyes and ears is of value to him. He also provided additional direct contact information should i wish to follow up with him. I, in turn, offered to provide feedback -- both as a rider and as a systems engineer -- on emerging service updates and new technologies such as the one currently being explored. I do, in fact, intend to keep in touch with Mr. Wells as things progress, regarding both changes at MTA and pursuits i'm making within my company to advocate greater use of mass transit.
Again, i apologize for taking so long to follow up here, but i did want to make sure it was reported that i not only received a response from Mr. Wells, but that it was an overwhelmingly positive one at that.