I was right about the whole mortgage crisis!
I did a lot of digging and finally uncovered my post on May 30th 2006 :
http://1pi00te005.livejournal.com/76415.html
Post pasted:
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Greenspan himself has now said the housing boom (can't expect him to say bubble obviously) is over. But everyone maintains that this won't lead to a big problem.
I somehow harbour my own doubts though mainly because:
1) Too many people seem to have been spending out of what they've borrowed on their home equity. If they all stop now things can't be too pretty.
2) The way banks and others have lent against and collateralised home equity - I wonder if there's a sudden dive in home prices - would they be able to recover as much as they hoped to as per their calculations? I mean these things have a cascading effect and I think a steep dive is a rather distinct possibility.
I don't pretend to know too much about all this but I like to form my own hypotheses and see how they play out and why. And, after all, I will work for an asset management company...
And another thing I do wonder about - IF I had money to invest - where would I put it? Not in equity for sure - not in MBS - where would you invest? I think I'd bet on a recession. Stock index futures. And bet on them going down.
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Was I right or was I right! If only I had had money to invest at the time! I would be retiring now....
http://1pi00te005.livejournal.com/76415.html
Post pasted:
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Greenspan himself has now said the housing boom (can't expect him to say bubble obviously) is over. But everyone maintains that this won't lead to a big problem.
I somehow harbour my own doubts though mainly because:
1) Too many people seem to have been spending out of what they've borrowed on their home equity. If they all stop now things can't be too pretty.
2) The way banks and others have lent against and collateralised home equity - I wonder if there's a sudden dive in home prices - would they be able to recover as much as they hoped to as per their calculations? I mean these things have a cascading effect and I think a steep dive is a rather distinct possibility.
I don't pretend to know too much about all this but I like to form my own hypotheses and see how they play out and why. And, after all, I will work for an asset management company...
And another thing I do wonder about - IF I had money to invest - where would I put it? Not in equity for sure - not in MBS - where would you invest? I think I'd bet on a recession. Stock index futures. And bet on them going down.
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Was I right or was I right! If only I had had money to invest at the time! I would be retiring now....